What are your plans for 2026? And how are you going to implement them? As the enthusiasm for the New Year’s resolutions wears off, you might go back to “business as usual”. This goes for both people and organizations.
We’re so busy with daily production, that it is hard to think about the future, to innovate and, next, to implement those innovations. Resolutions are intentions to innovate – but very often, our urgent, daily production wins. “This is the way we do things around here.” Until we can’t anymore….
After so many years of consulting, I see this pattern a lot: Capable teams, strong operations, solid results… and then suddenly, they’re scrambling because the market moved and they didn’t see it coming. They were too busy being with daily operations to prepare for tomorrow.
The Phoenix Pattern
In his book “Riding the Waves of the Never Normal,” Peter Hinssen discerns companies that thrived for decades versus those that faded. He calls the survivors “Phoenixes” – organizations like Disney and Walmart that continuously reinvent themselves.
What separates Phoenixes from companies that fade?
They maintain a delicate balance between innovation and core operations, between building for the future and doing business today.
More importantly, they understand one critical principle:
You have to innovate when you CAN, not when you NEED to.
When you wait until you need to innovate, you’ve often lost most of your strategic options.
Time Destroys Your Relevance
Hinssen identifies two critical questions every organization must answer:
Are you doing the Right Things? (Relevance)
Are you doing things Right? (Proficiency)
Most organizations obsess over proficiency – efficiency, quality, operations. They’re brilliant at execution.
But here’s the brutal truth: Relevance erodes.
Whatever brilliant business model you have today, whatever amazing product you sell – over time, it will become less brilliant, less amazing. Customers get used to it, competitors catch up.
Gradually, then suddenly.
Think about telecommunications companies. In the 1990s, they were heroes – unlocking mobile communication and the internet. Today, they’re commodities. Only noticed when something goes wrong.
The problem: You can’t reverse relevance erosion. It’s inevitable as products and services age.
Assess: Where Is Your Organization Right Now?
Take 10 minutes and plot your organization on these two dimensions:
The Relevance-Proficiency Matrix
Vertical Axis: RELEVANCE
High: You’re doing the right things – customers want what you offer, you’re solving real problems, you’re positioned for emerging opportunities
Low: You’re becoming less relevant – customers are shifting, competitors are offering better solutions, your value proposition is weakening
Horizontal Axis: PROFICIENCY
High: You’re doing things right – efficient operations, strong skills, good resources, solid execution
Low: You’re struggling with execution – skill gaps, resource constraints, operational challenges
Where does your organization sit?
Draw a simple 2×2 grid. Mark where you are today.
Now, here’s the critical question: Where will you be in 12 months if you change nothing? If you keep doing the same things, and doing them “the way we do things around here.”
Mark that spot too.
If relevance erodes naturally, your organization is likely drifting downward on the relevance axis – even if your proficiency stays strong.
The Innovation-Operations Balance
Next, do a second exercise:
How do you currently split your organizational time, energy, and resources?
Plot yourself or your (client) organization on this spectrum:
100% operations———————-100% innovation
Be honest. Include leadership time, budget allocation, team focus, meeting agendas.
Most organizations I work with are at 85% operations, 15% innovation.
They’re too busy with work today to prepare for tomorrow.
The Sweet Spot of Optionality
Here’s what the research shows: The best time to innovate is when you still have momentum, resources, and market goodwill – not when you’re in crisis mode.
Mark Leslie calls this the “Sweet Spot of Optionality” – that precise moment when you can still experiment, take risks, and explore new directions without existential threat.
The problem? This is exactly when change feels least necessary.
Apple didn’t wait until computer sales declined to launch the iPod. They innovated from strength. Blockbuster waited until they were struggling to consider streaming. By then, their options had narrowed to zero.
The brutal catch: While the strength of market signals increases over time (making trends more obvious and a “safe” bet), your number of strategic options decreases as the first competitors are shaping this emerging market.
Wait for certainty, and you’re too late.
Move too fast, and you spend resources on a mistake.
Two Actions to Regain Relevance
If you’re losing relevance (or see it coming), you have two options:
1. Re-target
Regain relevance by deeply understanding evolving customer needs, emerging trends, and new opportunities. What are your customers’ changing priorities? What forces are reshaping your industry? If you’re not sure, check our Strategic Foresight Community and our free videos.
2. Re-charge
Shift from pure production mode to creation mode. Build innovation capacity. Make time for strategic thinking. Develop foresight capabilities. If you’re not sure, check your current culture (with the OCAI). What is valued more? Production or innovation? The compete or create culture type?
Both require something most organizations (and independent consultants) claim they don’t have: time.
But here’s the reality: You either invest 20 hours in strategic foresight soon, or you might spend 20 weeks on crisis management later.
Your January Decision
Look at your two plots again:
1. Your position on the Relevance-Proficiency matrix
2. Your Innovation-Operations balance
If you’re high on proficiency but slipping on relevance, and spending 80% of your time on operations, you’re in the danger zone.
The organizations that thrive in 2026 and beyond are the ones making time for strategic foresight right now – when they can, not when they must.
Make Time Before Time Runs Out
Vision without action is just a paper tiger. But action without vision is just busy work that leads nowhere.
You need both: the ability to see what’s coming AND the discipline to act on it before you’re forced to.
This is your moment of optionality.
It’s wise to invest some time now in developing strategic foresight capabilities.
Want to learn how to spot weak signals, map future forces, and maintain relevance while staying proficient?
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© Marcella Bremer, 2026