In one hand, an oat latte. In the other, a phone with social feeds full of doom-scroll posts about the end of the world – Rob Harrison-Plastow describes what many professionals do in his article on Linkedin.
“A quiet transformation is happening. It’s not the stereotype of survivalist preppers hoarding beans in bunkers. It’s middle-class professionals who have seen the data and come to a stark conclusion: the systems we rely on for survival are far more fragile than they appear, are deeply flawed, and contain within them dynamics that keep us locked into a dangerous trajectory.”
Jim Dator’s collapse scenario
Pablo Sevigne, Raphaël Stevens, and Gauthier Chapelle, three former scientists came to the same conclusion more than a decade ago and started a movement in France. In their book “Another End of the World Is Possible” they conclude:
Whatever the outcome of the global polycrisis, extreme weather events are locked in for the next twenty to thirty years due to climate system inertia. We’d better prepare…
They expect the collapse of our ‘thermo-industrial civilization’ as a process taking place in many different locations. It has already begun (especially in the global South), but it has not yet reached its most critical phase. So, we can still enjoy our coffees while we scroll our timelines.
There are more thought leaders who discuss the possible decline scenarios of our current world. Think about Rupert Read, Dougald Hine, Richard Heinberg, and of course, Jem Bendell.
The futurologist and former professor Jim Dator researched four archetypical scenarios for possible futures; both positive and negative. A possible decline scenario is just one of the options as I describe in this post.
You may also want to read my post about the X-curve and the roles needed for transformational change (including those helping the old system decline or die).
The biggest taboo
Okay, so collapse is an option. But why don’t we talk more about the possible collapse of our current systems at work, at parties, at dinners, with friends, family, and colleagues?
If something is possible in one of the plausible futures – then we should talk about it and prepare, both mentally, emotionally, and practically. But we have been reluctant to consider this option. That’s understandable, I guess. It’s not a fun topic.
What’s more, it’s a taboo in our current culture.
“Some are voicing this (possible collapse) quite openly, joining local groups to affect change and learn how to adapt, but many, many more have read the same writing on the wall but stay completely silent”, sees Harrison-Plastow.
“This irrational behavior (scared of social and ecological collapse but staying silent about it) that we are trying to explain is not as simple as a flight response or paralysis, it is something far more nuanced.
Instead, there is a spectrum of engagement, where individuals exist in varying stages of awareness while continuing to participate in a system that they intellectually understand is unsustainable and self-destructive AND is also essential to their livelihoods and immediate wellbeing – we all have to pay the bills.”
Above all, in our current narrative, progress is the mantra. Collapse or decline is not acceptable in our global culture.
I wrote about the story of our culture before. In short, the narrative is summarized by Charles Eisenstein: “Humanity was destined to create a perfect world through science, reason, and technology; to conquer nature, transcend our animal origins, and engineer a rational society. The story brought great material wealth to the industrialized world. (…) We once thought economics would fix poverty, political scientists would fix social injustice, chemists and biologists would fix environmental problems, and the power of reason would prevail.”
/blog/can-you-change-this-story-and-culture
Collapse sounds rather dramatic (like apocalypse) but even gradual decline is a taboo. It is unthinkable.
Is this a taboo in your organization?
Taboos pose strong limitations to what is possible. That is dangerous when you are anticipating different futures! An open mind is crucial for all futurists, for all leaders, and for all people.
Social animals
The fact that we are social animals is often a roadblock to change.
What is keeping us from changing? Other people! Other people are a big part of why change can be hard – in addition to the discomfort of (un)learning and fear of the unknown.
We are social animals and we often do what others do: “What is normal around here”. Deep down, we want to belong. We also tend to think alike. If our colleagues or loved ones repeat misinformation on a daily basis it might become acceptable – we get used to it. Of course, this is a generalization but you get the idea.
We are afraid of not belonging, afraid of losing face, of not being taken seriously, of being excluded.
We don’t want to be judged – and we want to keep our positions to pay our bills.
We want respect
Harrison-Plastow analyses the underlying limiting beliefs and why people don’t talk about collapse or decline.
“If I express my full views, I will be socially and professionally penalized”.
“I have to filter my thoughts to fit into a society that still believes in business as usual”.
“I feel like I am pretending when I participate in mainstream life”.
As a result, many people feel lonely, alienated, not safe, and powerless. Many fear judgment. We don’t want to be seen as overreacting or crazy.
Harrison-Plastow calls it the Survival Paradox: people feel trapped between an existential fear of other people’s opinions in the present and an existential fear about the future.
Do you recognize this? I sure do, but I started talking about it with clients in my foresight and change work. More people recognize the feeling. We’re living in confusing times – so we need to make sense of what is happening. Don’t be ashamed – talk about it.
As I have learned when facilitating a group: When you sense it – it is in the room. You are very seldom the only one! You might be the first and the most courageous person in the room. But others are feeling this, too.
I also had conversations with friends – sometimes uncomfortable conversations. Everyone experiences the current situation differently- depending on which papers they read, which social bubbles they live in, etc.
But it was also rewarding. It can disarm limiting beliefs and open up new possibilities. It can forge connections, build trust, and help collective intelligence grow. We need that to anticipate and prepare for possible futures.
Is this a taboo in your organization or within your social circles?
Find a few like-minded people and talk about it. You know you are not the only one.
Acknowledge the feelings and the limiting beliefs.
If you want to act on the precautionary principle (if this is possible – prepare):
-Brainstorm about ways to talk about this topic with more people.
-Gather information and work with Jim Dator’s scenarios – based on scientific research.
-Brainstorm about actions to make your group more resilient and prepared.
Ignoring the possibility and playing it safe (“business as usual”) is the riskiest thing to do.
© Marcella Bremer, 2025
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